The Treasury's financing need should drop slightly in 2020, thus generating less use of the treasury in the BDT market, according to the annual macro-economic and rate rating of CDG Capital. On the basis of the figures communicated within the framework of the 2020 finance law, mainly the public deficit which should be established at 3.5% of the GDP, and taking into account the growth hypothesis which highlights a recovery of 2.6 % estimated in 2019 at 3.7% forecast for 2020, with inflation rising from 0.2% to 1.3%, i.e. nominal growth of 5%, the Treasury's financing need should drop slightly , indicates CDG Capital in its note entitled "National economy and rate market facing the challenges of Covid-19 and drought".
The Treasury's financing need should drop slightly in 2020, thus generating less use of the treasury in the BDT market, according to the annual macro-economic and rate rating of CDG Capital.
On the basis of the figures communicated within the framework of the 2020 finance law, mainly the public deficit which should be established at 3.5% of the GDP, and taking into account the growth hypothesis which highlights a recovery of 2.6 % estimated in 2019 at 3.7% forecast for 2020, with inflation rising from 0.2% to 1.3%, i.e. nominal growth of 5%, the Treasury's financing need should drop slightly , indicates CDG Capital in its note entitled "National economy and rate market facing the challenges of Covid-19 and drought".
Thus, according to the calculations of CDG Capital and on the basis of an assumption of closure of the financial year 2020 with a budget deficit of 3.5% of the GDP, the financing need of the Treasury should lighten slightly to reach 42 billion dirhams against 46 MMDH estimated for the year 2019, according to the first estimates of the General Treasury of the Kingdom, a decrease of about 4 MMDH, notes the same source.
On the basis of an assumption of overall financing of the deficit by using BDTs, and taking into account the planned fallings in 2020 of a value of 68.1 MMDH, down by 31 MMDH compared to the provisional achievements of the past year, gross levees should stabilize at around 11 MMDH, continues CDG Capital.
However, the Treasury should use various internal sources, including deposits in the Treasury, as well as external, in particular, loans and grants, said the same source. Based on the average of the past five years, the Treasury has covered almost 63% of its need through the BDT market, the note said, adding that based on this assumption, the gross levees of the Treasury on the market should decline to stand at 94 MMDH, an average monthly of 7.8 MMDH against 9.25 MMDH recorded in 2019
On the basis of the figures communicated within the framework of the 2020 finance law, mainly the public deficit which should be established at 3.5% of the GDP, and taking into account the growth hypothesis which highlights a recovery of 2.6 % estimated in 2019 at 3.7% forecast for 2020, with inflation rising from 0.2% to 1.3%, i.e. nominal growth of 5%, the Treasury's financing need should drop slightly , indicates CDG Capital in its note entitled "National economy and rate market facing the challenges of Covid-19 and drought".
Thus, according to the calculations of CDG Capital and on the basis of an assumption of closure of the financial year 2020 with a budget deficit of 3.5% of the GDP, the financing need of the Treasury should lighten slightly to reach 42 billion dirhams against 46 MMDH estimated for the year 2019, according to the first estimates of the General Treasury of the Kingdom, a decrease of about 4 MMDH, notes the same source.
On the basis of an assumption of overall financing of the deficit by using BDTs, and taking into account the planned fallings in 2020 of a value of 68.1 MMDH, down by 31 MMDH compared to the provisional achievements of the past year, gross levees should stabilize at around 11 MMDH, continues CDG Capital.
However, the Treasury should use various internal sources, including deposits in the Treasury, as well as external, in particular, loans and grants, said the same source. Based on the average of the past five years, the Treasury has covered almost 63% of its need through the BDT market, the note said, adding that based on this assumption, the gross levees of the Treasury on the market should decline to stand at 94 MMDH, an average monthly of 7.8 MMDH against 9.25 MMDH recorded in 2019
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